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Russian media have always portrayed Ukraine as an enemy nation. But from past few week the reporting on Ukraine is highly negative specially on the state run news channel.

Now here it’s important that we look on Russian media. The reason for that is that we can get a idea what going on in the mind of top leaders and what message do the Russian government want to spread in its people.

In the latest developments Russian has insisted that they are moving back there troops to there regular bases. They have also released video of moving troops and tanks. But according to The United States there have been no decrease in the number of troops. But opposite to Russian claim the number of troops have increased on the border.

If reports are to be believed there are more than 130,000 troops on the border of Ukraine. The situation remain tense and this standoff will the future of Ukraine.

BUT WHAT IS THIS CONFLICT ABOUT?

To understand this conflict its important to understand the History of Ukraine. Ukraine is a former member of Soviet Republic. When Soviet Union broke up in early 90’s Ukraine became independent. At that time Ukraine was having the third largest Atomic Arsenal in the world. The U.S and Russia worked With Ukraine to denuclearize the country, in the series of Diplomatic meetings Ukraine gave up its Atomic Arsenal. With this Russia assured Ukraine to Protect Ukraine from any attack in Future. But everything changed, In 2014 Russia invaded Ukraine. Russia supported Pro-Russian separatist in the eastern Dons and took over Crimean Peninsula. At the time Ukraine saw huge protest and Pro-Russian president Viktor Yanukovych was removed.

Now let’s come back to current situation between these two countries- To pull back it’s troops Russian has kept forward few demands 1] NATO stops it’s eastward expansion. 2] NATO Deny membership to Ukraine 3] NATO Roll back it’s troops deployment. in countries that joined NATO after 1997. NATO and The U.S rejected these demands.

But Why Russia is will to go to war to just stop Ukraine from Joining NATO?

The one reason for this is the Article 5 of NATO. According to that if any country attack any NATO member. that will considered as an attack on NATO. In other words if any country attacks NATO member it will be indirectly attacking U.S, The U.K, France and 27 other members. This way if Ukraine becomes the part of the NATO Russia will loses its dominance and NATO will come at the door of Russia.

The other big reason for the that Putin is trying to build a empire which is as influential as Soviet Union. Ukraine is center piece for the same. Time to time Putin has said that both the Russian and Ukrainians were ‘one people a single whole’.

But practically it’s next to impossible that Ukraine will be part of NATO in near future. All the 30 members of NATO must provide that country support then only that country can become part of NATO. In the case of Ukraine there are few members who have made it clear that they don’t want Ukraine to be part of NATO.

If Russia knows that Ukraine won’t be able to join Ukraine then why Russia is not pulling back it’s troops?

There are several reasons for the timing of this potential Invasion-

[1] New president of Ukraine Volodymyer who was elected as president in 2019. During his campaign he promised that he will reboot talks with Russia and the conflict in the eastern Ukraine. Russia wanted Volodymyer to implement 15 Minsk agreement. No president would accept that. so Volodymyer openly talked about joining NATO.

[2] Russia also see’s the divide in the west about the role of U.S in the world. After the destruction by the Trump Administration Biden is still working on to put transatlantic alliance back.

[3] EU is still dealing with the exit of The UK and energy prices are spiking as it Imports natural gas from Russia.

[4] Germany has new Chancellor after Olaf Scholz after 16 years of Angela Merkel. the new government is still figuring out it’s foreign policy.

[5] France is going to elections this April so president Emmanuel Macron is trying to face who resolved the crisis. so that it helps him in the elections.

[6] Russia’s economy is struggling some experts suggest that this might be move to boost the standing of Putin back home in Russia.

The conflict in the Crimean Peninsula in Ukraine have killed more than 14,000 people so far. If Russia decided to attack Ukraine then both countries will suffer. The Ukraine will suffer more but Russia will also loss lives.

There is hope that this conflict will be solved and the tension will decrease on the border through diplomatic Channels.